Method sheet — The Policy

1. Sources & licences

• U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, PPI Hausrat-/Wohngebäudeversicherung (PCU9241269241262), via FRED — https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCU9241269241262 (Public Domain (BLS))
• NOAA NCEI, Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters — https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/billions/ (Public Domain (NOAA), DOI 10.25921/stkw-7w73)
• FEMA OpenFEMA, NFIP Schadenzahlungen — https://www.fema.gov/about/openfema/api (Public Domain (FEMA))
• California Department of Insurance, Non-Renewals by ZIP — https://www.insurance.ca.gov/01-consumers/200-wrr/DataAnalysisOnWildfiresAndInsurance.cfm (öffentlich (CA DOI))

2. Cadence

Nightly run (04:00 UTC): premium monthly (US insurance PPI via FRED), claims history annual (NOAA NCEI, frozen at 2024 — Climate Central continues the series), settlement monthly (FEMA NFIP), retreat annual (CA DOI, editorially maintained). The canonical artefact is a versioned police.json in the repository — git is the archive.

3. Processing

Deterministic, no LLM: every paragraph of the policy follows mechanically from the data, typeset with Intl number and date formatting. The canonical police.json lives in the repository; git is the archive.

→ pipelines/protokoll/…/praemie

4. Limits of the method

• All four sources are US-centric — the global insurance market is not openly accessible. The policy is thus a section through the best-documented market, not through the world.
• The premium index measures US home-insurance prices as a proxy for priced-in climate risk, not reinsurance premiums directly.
• The claims history (NOAA NCEI) ends in 2024; the billion-dollar-disaster series is continued by Climate Central.
• The retreat (non-renewals, California) is editorially maintained — not a live feed.
• "The market has priced the apocalypse" is an interpretation of rising prices, not a claim that any single number equals the cost of the catastrophe.

5. Compute footprint

Four lightweight fetches per night, no LLM, no embedding. The site itself is static.

6. Change log

• v1 — first edition: policy with premium, claims history, settlement and retreat.